The “rising wave among young people” may help carry Obama to a November victory, according to a new Democracy Corps report, which puts Obama at a huge 33 point lead over McCain among likely young voters. This margin typifies the political landscape: “Democratic support among America’s youth now reaches 2006 levels, not only in the generic vote for president, which has been true for some time, but also in the named trial heat. Obama now beats McCain 60 to 33 percent in a named ballot for President, a margin that echoes the Democratic advantage in the 2006 congressional elections (60 – 38 percent).”

In “Youth for the Win,” the third installment of their young voter series, Carville and Greenberg argue that young voter bloc will be instrumental for an Obama win, citing with three distinct but complementary phenomena:

• Growing interest and enthusiasm from young voters, specifically among Democrats and Independents
• Obama’s consolidation of the Democratic base, substantially unifying the party
• A “crash of the McCain brand” and the “profound alienation of America’s youth” from the GOP

In effect, the rising wave is more like a perfect storm:

“Critically, the Democratic advantage balloons among young people most likely to vote. Among core voters—young people with some vote history—and among young people who describe their likelihood of voting as a ten on a ten-point scale, Obama’s vote share reaches 66 percent…. There is no indication in this survey that the Democratic vote “maxes out” among youth. While Obama stands close to his ceiling among Democrats, there is still room to grow his vote among young Independents and other groups that still show some scarring from the primary, principally married women and “older” (ages 24 to 29) white women.”

To sustain this margin (or even grow it), progressives should continue to attack McCain’s complicity in the Bush legacy—what they call the generational argument of “leaving the next generation to deal with an endless war, a mountain of debt, a shattered economy.” They even offer proof: “Young people are not amused when they learn about McCain’s plan to cut further some of the programs that could potentially help them.” Indeed.

Issues remain, though, as Democracy Corps rightly notes: “There is no question that Obama will carry young people and with a comfortable margin. Progressives need to do everything they can to increase that margin, but arguably the bigger challenge is maintaining the trend among youth turnout.” This is the challenge of the young voter revolution, the challenge to at once meet and confound expectations. Observers mostly agree now that young voters can decide this election, but some doubt that we will. Be sure you are doing your part: sign YDA’s vote pledge and encourage your friends to commit too. Together, we can prove them right and wrong—and, all the while, win an election.